The use of the Telegram encrypted messaging network by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-K), the jihadist organization's Afghan affiliate, to claim responsibility for the attack on a Moscow concert hall on March 22 came as no surprise to Western intelligence services. While Russian President Vladimir Putin and his security services have not yet mentioned their communiqué, it was through this channel that the group assumed responsibility for its deadly attack.

IS-K embodies a regionalization strategy that the international jihadist movement has followed since it lost its base in Iraq and Syria; a restructuring facilitated by the instability of the unstable Afghanistan-Pakistan area.

In July 2021, according to a UN report submitted to the Security Council, the number of IS fighters in Afghanistan was estimated at "between 500 and several thousand." Its presence in the region, under the name of Islamic State Khorasan Province – a former name for a region encompassing parts of South Asia, Iran and Central Asia – was documented since 2015. The UN found that, while the return to power of the Afghan Taliban in mid-2021 reduced its scope of action in Afghanistan – but not its capacity for action – IS-K has since re-established bases in Central Asian countries across the border.

Putin was already alarmed by "the ambitions and strengths of the Islamic State jihadist group in Afghanistan," in remarks he made on October 15, 2021. He was then pointing to the "combat experience" gained by its members in Iraq and Syria. "The leaders of the Islamic State are preparing plans to extend their influence in the countries of Central Asia and the Russian regions by stirring up ethno-religious conflicts and religious hatred," said the Kremlin leader at the time, questioning the ability of the Afghan Taliban to defeat the armed groups.

The "Emirate of Khorasan" in Afghanistan initially drew on insurgents who had broken with the Taliban and other radical groups scattered across the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. These defectors sought to use their new leadership to control small local territories. In the wake of the Pakistani Taliban's expulsion from areas by Islamabad's army, IS established its base in the mountainous Achin District of the eastern province of Nangarhar, the only one where the organization managed to gain a lasting foothold, along with the neighboring Kunar, before succeeding in gaining a foothold in border areas with Central Asian countries.

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