Will the surge in military spending bring the French economy out of its sluggishness? If there's a virtue to be found in the push for European nations to bolster their defense, it may be that of giving a boost to an economy battered by six months of political uncertainty and budget vacancies, rising unemployment and the German recession. In 2025, growth is unlikely to exceed 0.9% according to the Bank of France – and even then, this forecast predates the trade war launched by Trump. "An increase in defence and infrastructure spending could also add to growth," said Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), on Thursday, March 6.

President Emmanuel Macron has set a target of increasing military spending to 3.5% of gross industrial product (GDP), whereas the country currently spends just over 2%. In other words, France will have to spend an additional €30 billion a year. According to Armed Forces Minister Sébastien Lecornu, France's defense budget of €50.5 billion this year (not including pension costs) is set to rise to around €67 billion by 2030.

And this could be a minimum: Speaking to party leaders at the Elysée Palace on February 20, the president quoted a figure of 5% of GDP devoted to military spending. In any case, between 2017 and 2030, the defense budget should have at least doubled. Add to this the spectacular decisions taken in Germany to invest in infrastructure and Europe's willingness to devote €800 billion to defense, and "it gives the impression that we could be at the dawn of a new era in Europe, a Brave New Europe," said Olivier Dubs, senior manager at JP Morgan Private Bank.

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