From the outside, Giorgia Meloni's Italy appears to be a prosperous island of certainty in a Europe on shaky ground. France is mired in a tangle of crises, and Germany surpassed the three million unemployed mark in August. Meanwhile, on September 18, Italy's 10-year borrowing rates fell to match those of France, reflecting a dramatic drop in the public deficit from 7.2% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023 to 3.4% in 2024.

By contrast, France, with a 5.8% GDP deficit, saw its debt rating downgraded from AA− to A+ by ratings agency Fitch on September 12. On September 19, Fitch upgraded Italy's rating from BBB to BBB+. Meloni immediately welcomed this as "confirmation that the path of my government is the right one."

Her government, one of the most stable in Italy's history, celebrated, while in France, people are debating the so-called "Meloni model." On the right and beyond, many readily praised the merits of this conservative, illiberal and nationalist government's methods in addressing today's challenges. "In the most difficult circumstances, the budget deficit ended up lower than expected, and it is no longer taboo to hope for full employment. Italy has regained its credibility: It is an anchor of stability for Europe. Growth will follow from this foundation," said Domenico Lombardi, a former economist at the Banca d'Italia and professor of public policy at Rome's Luiss University. Italy's economy grew 0.7% in 2024, slightly below the eurozone average of 0.8%, and is forecasted to drop to 0.6% in 2025, according to forecasts from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), versus 1.2% for the European average.

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