On Monday, December 2, French President Emmanuel Macron began his first state visit to Saudi Arabia, a long-awaited 48-hour visit by Paris. Against a backdrop of regional crises, from Gaza to Lebanon to Syria, Macron is seeking to consolidate his relationship with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, also known as "MBS," a key player in the quest for regional stability. Accompanied by a delegation of business leaders, the French president hopes to win contracts for France, despite the scaling back of the mega-projects at the heart of Vision 2030, the kingdom's strategy of modernization and economic diversification.
At the end of 2022, Macron offered the young Saudi ruler a stepping stone by inviting him to Paris, when he was still considered a pariah within the international community following the 2018 murder of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi. The 39-year-old sovereign, whom the declining health of his father, King Salman, put de facto in power, is now courted on the international stage and is taking advantage of this to diversify his partnerships. Weakened by a political and budgetary crisis, Macron needs to reinforce his international stature.
With Donald Trump's return to the White House on January 20, 2025, his relationship with the US should once again become a priority for the Saudi crown prince. During Trump's first term, MBS forged a special relationship with him and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner. "It's going to be very difficult for President Macron to open a breach in this exclusive relationship," said Hasni Abidi, director of the Geneva-based Center for Studies and Research on the Arab and Mediterranean World. This relationship offers the Saudi leader privileged access to Washington, while the détente initiated with Tehran in 2023 and reinforced by the war in Gaza opens up a channel of mediation with the Islamic Republic.
The Saudi Crown Prince may need to enlist outside support to influence US policy on the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel remains a priority for the president-elect, who would like to complete the Abraham Accords – his signature diplomatic achievement from 2020 – signed between Israel and the Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan.
For MBS, the signing of a defense pact with Washington, access to fighter jets and civilian nuclear power is no longer a sufficient quid pro quo. Faced with the outrage caused within the kingdom by the deadly Israeli bombings in the Gaza Strip, the Saudi monarch is now making the establishment of a Palestinian state a condition for normalization with Israel.
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