Twenty days of campaigning were not enough to reverse the electoral trend observed in the European elections of June 9. The main effect of the surprise snap legislative elections President Emmanuel Macron called for June 30 and July 7, was to consolidate the position of the three blocs that dominate the national political scene and the future Assemblée Nationale: the Rassemblement National (RN) and its right-wing allies, the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) left-wing coalition and the presidential coalition led by Macron's Renaissance party, with the MoDem and Horizons.

For the first time in France under the Fifth Republic, the far right has come out on top in the first round of legislative elections. The party chaired by Jordan Bardella, the RN's designated candidate for prime minister in the event of an absolute majority, obtained 34% of the vote, according to initial estimates from Ipsos Talan for France Télévisions, Radio France, France24/RFI and LCP Assemblée Nationale.

This represented a score almost double that of the 2022 legislative elections, when the RN achieved 18.7% in the first round. The far-right party even managed to increase its momentum compared with its result in the EU elections (31.37%), thanks to the alliance forged with Les Républicains' (LR) contested president, Eric Ciotti.

These results suggest that the party led by Marine Le Pen is likely to win a majority of seats in the French Assemblée Nationale in the second round. With a relative majority? Or an absolute majority even, which implies attaining at least 289 seats? This will be one of the main issues at stake in the second round. "We need an absolute majority for Jordan Bardella to be appointed prime minister in the next few days," Le Pen said from her stronghold of Hénin-Beaumont, northern France.

A possible accession to power through the parliamentary route is all the more unprecedented for the former Front National. The two-round first-past-the-post system, which until 2022 was a major obstacle to the far-right party that had existed for a long time on the margins of the political institutions, now favors its ascent, thanks to its amplifying effect for the party that comes out on top.

The left-wing alliance got 28.1 % of the vote, according to initial estimates. The four main forces on the left – La France Insoumise (LFI), the Parti Socialiste, the Greens and the Communist Party – have done better than their previous electoral alliance, forged in 2022 under the Nouvelle Union Populaire Écologique et Sociale (NUPES) label, who scored 25.6%. But their score in this first round remains below the sum of each party's results in the European elections (31.6%).

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