"I consider myself a happy man!" Relaxed, confident and even beaming, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva addressed the Brazilian people on December 24, 2023, for his traditional Christmas speech. Wearing a red tie and with a lit Christmas tree behind him, the president spent five minutes reflecting on the past year leading Brazil: "[In 2023] we plowed the land, sowed the seeds and watered them every day. (...) The conditions are ripe for a bountiful harvest in 2024!"

Lula "the gardener" is optimistic about his harvest and, on the face of it, has good reason to be. Back at the top after a narrow presidential election victory over Jair Bolsonaro, in a country left dazed and traumatized by the ransacking of Brasilia's institutions on January 8, 2023, the left-wing leader can be proud of early encouraging results – albeit mixed – that provide some hope.

Lula listed his achievements, starting with the revival of social programs, including the Bolsa Familia allowance; the My House, My Life social housing plan; and the People's Pharmacy health initiative. In one year, the minimum wage has been readjusted by 16.5% (more than inflation) and investment has picked up. Over four years, €300 billion has been allocated for an extensive plan focused on infrastructure development.

The Brazilian president has offered assurances to markets that he knows to be hostile to the Workers' Party (PT). A new fiscal framework now caps the increase in public spending at 70% of the rise in state revenue. In mid-December, an unprecedented simplification of consumption taxes was voted through Congress, a timely incentive to invest in a highly bureaucratic Brazil with a Byzantine taxation system.

Balancing recovery and orthodoxy, this first "harvest" has borne fruit. GDP is set to grow by over 3% this year, well above economists' forecasts. Unemployment (7.5%) is at its lowest since 2014, food prices are falling and the stock markets are celebrating: Sao Paulo's Bovespa index has reached unprecedented levels at 134,000 points and Standard & Poor's has upgraded Brazil's credit rating from BB- to BB.

Beyond that, the government wanted to underline its divergence from the Bolsonaro era. In the Amazon, there have been rapid achievements: Deforestation fell by half in 2023 compared to 2022, with just over 5,000 square kilometers destroyed, according to initial figures from the Brazilian Space Agency. The government resumed the fight against hunger, reinstated restrictions on firearms sales, as well as increased fines tenfold for violations of gender pay equality.

You have 70% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.