"For €50, there's nothing in the cart anymore," "It's so expensive." These are just two examples of phrases Carine "hears all the time" at the checkout. The cashier at a hypermarket in western France (she declined to give her last name) was particularly well placed to observe the impact of rising food prices on households: +11.2% over one year until the end of August 2023, and +19.9% over two years, according to the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE). "On my conveyor belt, I see less red meat and more chicken strips and trays of pork, but also more discounted items." Carine went on to explain how customers manage their loyalty card bonus points as tightly as possible to try and soften the impact, crowding into the aisles at the slightest special offer.
In the offices of the same hypermarket, Hélène (who preferred to remain anonymous) scrolled through her Excel spreadsheets. Her verdict was clear: "People are paying more attention and prioritizing food over everything else. The store sells a lot more store-brand and low-cost items, and fewer hygiene and household products."
It's a phenomenon that began with the first price tensions and is growing as inflation further squeezes wallets. At the start of September 2023, Carrefour CEO Alexandre Bompard warned that consumers were going without "essential" products such as "feminine hygiene products, diapers, toothpaste," which were seeing "double-digit" sales declines (Franceinfo radio, Tuesday, August 29). Rising prices for fuel, property taxes, regulated electricity prices (15% in February, then 10% in August), and shopping: "All this adds up quickly, and we are starting to feel exasperation and anger in rural areas, which reminds me of the social mood in the summer of 2018, before the 'Yellow Vest' movement," said Dominique Schelcher, head of Système U supermarkets, who still expects inflation of "around 6% or 7% at the end of the year on food products." According to an Appinio survey conducted for LSA magazine on August 29, nearly half of French people struggle to make ends meet at the end of the month, compared with 37% in January 2022.
Faced with soaring prices, the French don't have the luxury of multiple solutions: They simply limit their purchases. "They are going out less, spending less on leisure activities and dipping into their savings to pay their energy bills, stock up their fridges and fill up their gas tanks," estimated consumer behavior research firm Circana back in May 2023. In the first half of the year, the volume of supermarket sales fell by 4.1% when compared to the same period in 2022. A record low. "The intensity of the decline in sales of food clearly shows that it has also become an adjustment variable," said Philippe Moati, professor of economics and co-founder of the research and consultancy firm L'Observatoire Société & Consommation.
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