Unlike Riyadh, Amman or Baghdad, Beirut has not sent an official delegation to Syria since the advent of the new strongman in Damascus, Ahmed al-Sharaa, who comes from the ranks of the powerful Islamist rebels of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and overthrew Bashar al-Assad's regime on December 8.

Lebanon has a few excuses. The political upheaval in Syria came at a time when it had other priorities: after two months of war, a fragile truce between Hezbollah and Israel had just come into effect on November 27, 2024, the day that happened to mark the start of the offensive that led to the fall of the Syrian regime. An institutional void had prevailed, with a government in charge of day-to-day affairs since the spring of 2022, in the absence of a president until the election, on Thursday, January 9, of the army chief, Joseph Aoun.

Until then, Beirut's contacts with its Syrian neighbor had been limited to telephone conversations. It was not until Syria adopted restrictions on the entry of Lebanese citizens into its territory that a visit to Damascus was organized for the outgoing Lebanese prime minister, Najib Mikati, on Saturday, January 11.

But there are other reasons for Lebanese reluctance. Firstly, the perception of events in the country varies significantly: the overthrow of al-Assad has been greeted with joy by some Lebanese, and with fear by others. Those who welcome the fall see it as liberation from the Syrians and revenge for Syria imposing its authority on Lebanon. The Syrian army occupied the country for 29 years (1976-2005).

Al-Assad's regime was the arbiter of Lebanon's post-war period in the 1990s and early 2000s. Those who are anxious are worried about the arrival of Islamists in power and a potential new wave of destabilization in Syria. Everyone knows that any reversal of fortune will have consequences for the Land of the Cedars: the destinies of the two neighbors are closely linked by history, economic relations, family ties and populations of various communities.

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