French far-right leader Marine Le Pen refrained, not without difficulty, from indulging in triumphalism, as she observed that a favorable atmosphere to her party has been established. Recent events, her political opponents' choices, and her party's discipline have propelled the Rassemblement National to new heights, in a poll commissioned by Le Monde.

This favorable period, set in motion by its record results in the 2022 legislative elections, in which the RN obtained the second-largest group in the Assemblée Nationale, has been speeding up since the summer: Urban riots and terrorist attacks in France, the growing prominence of the party's president Jordan Bardella, and the domestic consequences of the conflict in the Middle East have all consolidated the far-right movement's central position in public debate. Now, the idea that it could win the 2027 presidential election is gaining traction.

"A kind of certainty is building up with each passing presidential election, establishing us as a credible alternative, and our opponents are disseminating this observation," Marine Le Pen told Le Monde. "As a result, internationally, in business circles and among senior civil servants, the idea is taking hold that we're going to come to power, and that they need to consider this hypothesis."

The figures from Le Monde and Franceinfo's annual barometer on the perception of the far-right party confirm a strong trend. The strength of this poll stems from its duration, as the same questions have been asked every year for almost 40 years.

This Verian-Epoka survey was carried out face-to-face from November 21 to 29 on a representative sample of 1,006 people selected using a quota method. The responses provide evidence that support for the RN's ideas is growing, and that the party is gaining credibility, particularly when compared to the left-wing opposition. After six months of media focus on violence and immigration in France, respondents were also more hard-line on the subjects of security, immigration and Islam.

"The page of [Le Pen's] failed debate [against Emmanuel Macron] in 2017 has been turned once and for all," said Eddy Vautrin-Dumaine, research director for Verian. "The porosity [of the barrier] between the Les Républicains [LR, right-wight] party's electorate and the Rassemblement National is confirmed, and the RN is, very distinctly, the only one to embody opposition to Emmanuel Macron, even for left-wing sympathizers." The figures show a growing acceptance of the RN's rhetoric, despite the fundamentals of its policy platform remaining unchanged – abolishing jus soli, introducing a "national preference" for employment, etc. The proportion of people surveyed who say that they disagree with the RN's ideas is 54%, the lowest figure since the barometer began in 1984.

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