Three weeks after the coup, the underlying causes or opportunistic motivations that led senior officers of the Nigerien army to depose President Mohamed Bazoum on July 26 and deprive him of his freedom remain to be determined. One of the reasons given by the Niamey coup leaders – as in recent months by other coup leaders in Mali and Burkina Faso – to justify themselves is the "continuing deterioration of the security situation." But this argument does not stand up to analysis of the data collected on the ground in recent months.
In Niger, the succession of Islamist attacks since the coup does not establish a definitive cause-and-effect relationship but it does raise questions. On Tuesday, August 15, a detachment of Nigerien special forces was ambushed on the national road linking the towns of Boni and Torodi, some 60 km west of Niamey, on the way to the border with Burkina Faso. According to a provisional report by the Niger Ministry of Defense, at least 17 soldiers were killed and 20 wounded. This was the deadliest attack in recent weeks. Two days before, on Sunday, six National Guard soldiers were killed in the vicinity of Tillabéri, the main insurgent zone in the so-called "tri-border" region between Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.
The National Guard is paying the heaviest price in the assaults launched by Islamist insurgents in recent weeks, since the fighting units usually deployed in the field have been recalled to Niamey in case regional armed forces intervene to "restore constitutional order" – as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has threatened.
In a letter published on August 3 by The Washington Post, Bazoum, who has been held prisoner at his home since the coup, rejected the coup leaders' claim that they had acted to preserve Niger's security. "In fact, Niger's security situation has improved dramatically. To the south, where we face the terrorist group Boko Haram, there have been almost no attacks for two years, and refugees are returning to their villages [...]. The country's north and west have likewise suffered no major attacks since I took office in 2021," the deposed president wrote.
At the beginning of the year, General Mody, then chief of staff of the armed forces and now one of the strongmen of the Conseil National pour la Sauvegarde de la Patrie (CNSP) – the name the junta has given itself – hailed the results achieved by Bazoum. "Since January 7, 2022, the overall security situation in our country has improved. And we owe this lull to your defense and security policy," the senior officer had said to the head of state.
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