Friedrich Merz, Germany's next chancellor, said it bluntly on the very evening of his election victory on February 23: His "absolute priority" will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible to "really achieve independence from the US."

It's a Copernican revolution, because the Germans, like many other Europeans, had hitherto conceived their security within the framework of the Atlantic Alliance, largely under American tutelage. Merz also added that he never thought he would be called upon to speak as he did. The openly hostile attitude of the Trump administration has abruptly accelerated the discussions on strategic autonomy advocated since 2017 by French President Emmanuel Macron.

Four questions need to be addressed: The scale and pace of the defense effort, its effectiveness, which countries will participate, and finally, how it will be financed.

Over the last 10 years, defense spending by NATO's European members, which had fallen steadily since the end of the Cold War, has risen to reach 2% of GDP by 2024. This is still too little in light of the scale of the Russian threat, and especially the risk of US withdrawal. Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently mentioned 3% to 3.5% of GDP. This means an annual effort of €200 to €300 billion. A recent short-term needs assessment by the Bruegel think tank also arrived at an estimate of similar magnitude (€250 billion).

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