The high price of rice has cast doubt on the future of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. With the issue topping voters' concerns ahead of the Senate elections on July 20, the issue threatens to cost the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) its majority. Polls predict the party will win 35 seats out of the 124 up for renewal, down from 57 in the outgoing assembly.

The rice issue has dominated the campaign. The LDP, which has been in power almost continuously since 1955, pledged to revive rice production. Ishiba argued that "farmers must earn enough to live on and work without worry." Meanwhile, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP, opposition) called for increased subsidies for rice growers and, like other parties, advocated scrapping the highly unpopular consumption tax on food products.

The LDP struggled to convince voters after failing to halt the surge in prices that had persisted for months, fueled by poor harvests, precautionary buying that began in summer 2024 following warnings of an imminent earthquake, a tourism boom and speculation by wholesalers. The crisis was further inflamed by criticism from the Trump administration over Japan's "700%" rice import tariff, a figure which is disputed by Tokyo.

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