Autumn is being kind to Vladimir Putin. Slowly but surely, Russian armed forces are making progress in the Donbas and the Kursk region. The BRICS+ summit, held in Kazan [Russia, October 22-24], showed that his country is far from being isolated internationally, with even the UN secretary general in attendance. And in Georgia, the parliamentary elections of October 26 were won by the pro-Russian Georgian Dream party. In Moldova, the pro-European Maia Sandu was re-elected president, but the yes vote in the referendum on EU membership narrowly won out, and the parliamentary elections of 2025 could complicate matters.

What was missing from this promising picture was Donald Trump's victory in the American presidential race, but that has now happened. In 2016, Russians did not hold back their joy at the election of the man whose career they had been following closely for many years: Duma MPs popped champagne, while the president of the public television channel RT, Margarita Simonyan, announced that she would drive through Moscow with the American flag hanging from her car window.

This time, the mood seems different. In its official statement, the Russian Foreign Ministry said it has "no illusions" about the new president and the new composition of Congress, as anti-Russian sentiments and the desire to contain Russia are widely shared by both American political camps. President Putin waited until the evening of Thursday, November 7, to congratulate Trump. Earlier, his spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, reiterated that the United States topped the list of "unfriendly countries" and is "directly and indirectly" involved in the war against Russia.

Ukrainian front in trouble

Is this hypocritical posturing to avoid undermining the man who spent his first term defending his Russian connections? Or disappointment with Trump I, who did not lift anti-Russian sanctions and, in 2017, authorized the delivery of lethal weapons to Ukraine that his predecessor Barack Obama had refused out of caution?

The first burning issue on which we'll see Trump and Putin interact will be the war in Ukraine, support for which was the most divisive issue between the Democratic and Republican candidates during the campaign. Trump has been so adamant that he will end the war in 24 hours that he will have to take action without delay to prove that he is up to the challenge, unlike the previous administration.

Washington's support is crucial for Ukraine, which has received over $64 billion in military aid since February 2022, in addition to financial and humanitarian aid. Europe won't be able to pick up the slack on the same scale: France can't keep its promise to provide €3 billion in military aid this year, and Germany, the second-largest contributor after the US, has cut its share to €4 billion for 2025. If Trump decides to stop supporting Ukraine, there is clearly a real risk that the already struggling Ukrainian front will collapse.

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