Three months after the tragedy of October 7, I came back from the Middle East concerned by the gravity of the situation, but more determined than ever to make the voice of balance, reason and realism heard. For while the problems are complex and far-reaching, the war is only inevitable for those who have a political interest in perpetuating it.

In the current context, there are three priorities. The first is to prevent at all costs an extension of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to Lebanon. The second is to alleviate the catastrophic situation in Gaza while resuming serious negotiations to free the Israeli hostages. The third is to pave the way for a settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, starting by stopping the violence against the Palestinians in the West Bank.  While these three issues obviously have their own dynamics, in reality, they are totally intertwined.

On the Lebanese-Israeli border, exchanges of fire between the Israeli army and Hezbollah are multiplying. Of course, all the people I spoke to were convinced of the catastrophic nature of a conflict. It would blow up an already bloodied Lebanon and prevent the return of Israeli and Lebanese border residents. But History bears witness to wars that break out without necessarily being premeditated.  There is no insurmountable territorial conflict between Israel and Lebanon.

Moreover, there is a legal basis for an accommodation. This is resolution 1701. It presupposes a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Hezbollah forces behind the Litany River, Israel's respect for Lebanese airspace and the opening of indirect negotiations on the territorial dispute between the two countries which is in reality limited in scope. This could be done immediately. And the EU is ready to help.

Horrific humanitarian situation

Otherwise, the conflagration in the region will be cataclysmic and the Lebanese people will pay once again a dire price for it.  It will increase tensions, incentivize the spoilers and delay the search for a solution in Gaza and beyond to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Yet it is precisely in Gaza that the epicenter of the regional crisis lies. In humanitarian terms, the situation is horrific. Today, over 80% of Gaza's population has already been displaced within the strip. Now the absolute priority is to prevent a new de facto forced displacement out of Gaza, which is legally forbidden and morally unacceptable. Near the town of Rafah alone, on the border with Egypt, more than 250,000 people are currently living in inhuman conditions.

You have 60% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.