After years of disinvestment in the Middle East, the United States should be asking whether it has lost further influence and credibility in the region in just a few decisive days. In the aftermath of Hamas's massacre in Israel, the Joe Biden administration has wholeheartedly committed itself to Israel, giving it free rein in its military response. It was only a week after the start of hostilities that American diplomacy began to take account of the plight of Gaza's civilians, terrified by the Israeli bombardments, which have claimed more than 2,750 lives in nine days.
But, as of yet, there have been no concrete results. Despite tough negotiations that took place all weekend in the Arab capitals visited by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the Rafah terminal, the only way out of Gaza, was still closed on Monday, October 16. The Egyptian government, which controls this crossing point, has conditioned its opening – which would enable the evacuation of 500 nationals trapped in the Gaza Strip, including Palestinian-Americans – on the entry into the Palestinian territory of humanitarian aid convoys. This give-and-take assumes that Israeli bombardment will cease at least until the trucks have entered, a commitment that Blinken was clearly unable to obtain from his Israeli ally, despite the insistence of Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf monarchies.
Blinken began his tour in Amman on Friday with a one-way proposal: The evacuation of two million Gazans to Sinai, to enable Israel to carry out its ground offensive against Hamas with minimum civilian casualties. Already, 600,000 civilians have fled to the south of the enclave, following Israeli instructions. This proposal, which has revived the specter of a new Nakba ("catastrophe" in Arabic), the forced exile of 700,000 Palestinians when the State of Israel was proclaimed in 1948, was unacceptable to Egypt.
"Arab countries have seen all too well what 'temporary reception' means. In Syria, Lebanon and Jordan, Palestinian refugees are still there," said former Egyptian MP Mohamed Anwar el-Sadat. The US is said to have tried to convince Cairo with the promise of financial aid or debt relief, at a time when the country is sinking into a serious economic crisis. President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi has made up his mind, citing the risk of destabilizing Sinai, a jihadist hotbed: "Egypt's national security" is a red line.
In an interview with the Al-Arabiya channel in Cairo on Sunday evening, Blinken acknowledged his clumsiness. "I've heard directly from Palestinian Authority President Abbas and from virtually every other lead that I've talked to in the region, that that idea is a non-starter, and so we do not support it." It was an astonishing message, which clearly means that it was the anger of regional countries that determined Washington's position.
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