While Cairo is more discreet than Doha in mediating between Israel and Hamas, it is no less indispensable. With the war in Gaza, Egypt is regaining a centrality it had lost on the international stage with the rise in power of its Persian Gulf sponsors.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Choukri, backed by his Jordanian counterpart, Ayman Safadi, is standing up to Israeli plans to move two million Gazans into Sinai. Alongside Qatari mediators, General Abbas Kamel, head of the General Intelligence Service (GIS), negotiated the truce between the warring parties, which enabled the exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, and the entry of humanitarian aid into Gaza.
"While Qatar is a very strong diplomatic and financial supporter of Hamas, it is perceived as less important than Egypt, as it is not geographically involved in the conflict," said Sarah Daoud, a political scientist at Sciences Po's International Research Center. After administering the enclave until 1967, Egypt retained important relays there. GIS officers, directly linked to the president, "have a human network on the ground. They talk just as much with the military wing of Hamas, its political bureau and the various Palestinian factions," said Dima Alsajdeya, a researcher at the Collège de France.
The Rafah border crossing has been a thermometer of political relations between Egypt, Israel and Hamas. It was completely closed when Field Marshal Abdel Fattah el-Sissi came to power in Egypt in 2014 and was openly fighting against the Muslim Brotherhood. It reopened when Yahya Sinwar took over the leadership of Hamas in Gaza in 2017, signaling a shift toward Palestinian reconciliation. Rivalry with Qatar, pinpointed by Cairo and its Gulf sponsors as a sponsor of political Islamism, also eased with the lifting of the blockade against Qatar in January 2021, giving way to co-mediation in the wars that have since pitted Israel against Hamas.
Dependent on Riyadh and Abu Dhabi
Cairo's involvement in the gas issue means it benefits from greater magnanimity on the part of the Gulf petro-monarchies, the United States and the European Union. "The question is how Egypt will capitalize on the post-war period. In all scenarios, Egypt will be at the center of discussions on resolving the conflict, and also on the highly political issue of reconstruction. Even though it will probably be financed with funds from the Gulf, Egypt will inevitably have a role to play," said Amr Adly, Professor of Political Science at the American University in Cairo.
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