The Israeli army's entry into Rafah, in the south of the Gaza Strip, on Tuesday, May 7, came after 10 days of negotiations with Hamas for a ceasefire, which now appears to be compromised but not yet abandoned. Just a few hours before the army moved in, the Islamist movement had announced that it had accepted a proposal negotiated by Israel, the US, Egypt, and Qatar, all while making important last-minute amendments, which Israel denounced as being unacceptable.
On April 27, Israel caused astonishment when it transmitted a new document to the Egyptian and Qatari mediators, at a time when negotiations were at a standstill; in stark contrast to the positions it had been advocating for six months. "We were all surprised," said an Arab diplomat. "The offer was very positive. All of a sudden, the Israelis were accepting what they had hitherto refused." Alongside a timetable for de-escalation divided into three phases, each lasting about 40 days, which would start with the release of 33 hostages (women; including soldiers, the elderly, and the sick), the text included two major advances.
It mentioned that both parties were committed to restoring "permanent calm." This was an allusion to the end to hostilities called for by the Islamist movement, which fears that once the around 130 hostages have been released, in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, the Israeli offensive will resume in earnest. The Israeli proposal, another notable step forward, paved the way for the return of displaced persons to the north of the Gaza Strip, a largely depopulated region that many Palestinians have feared will be detached from the rest of the enclave.
Hamas responded a few days later. The Islamist movement approved the draft agreement provided that some clarifications were given, in particular regarding "permanent calm." The phrase, coined by CIA Director William Burns' team to imply that acceptance of the deal would be tantamount to the end of the war, was not clear enough for the Islamists' liking. Yet the Israeli authorities have been reluctant to talk about a ceasefire, arguing that no such agreement existed before October 7, 2023.
The Egyptian negotiators have nevertheless remained convinced that an agreement is within reach, after four months of fruitless attempts. "The Americans have gone further in the guarantees they have given Hamas," said an Egyptian diplomat. "The problem is that they can't offer much in the way of guarantees. They have no trust in either Hamas or Benjamin Netanyahu."
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