In almost two months of war, the overall picture is bleak. Less than half the hostages have returned, and Hamas, despite bombardments on an unprecedented scale – between October 7 and November 20, 27,000 munitions fell on the enclave, according to the Israeli media – is keeping such a tight hold on Gaza that the truce lasted seven days without any significant break. Then, on the morning of Friday, December 1, the Palestinian movement, anticipating the failure of negotiations aimed at renewing the "humanitarian pause," decided to send rockets into Israeli territory, demonstrating that it still had the initiative. With 75 soldiers dead on the Israeli side and over 15,000 on the Palestinian side, the vast majority of them civilians, this confrontation is already the longest and deadliest in the series of wars between the two sides, which began in 2008. If one of the aims of this war is to "destroy" the Islamist movement, the road ahead will still be difficult.

Meanwhile, Benjamin Netanyahu is consolidating his record as the longest-serving prime minister in Israel's history. Despite his unpopularity, highlighted by the massive demonstrations against Supreme Court reform, and despite his responsibility for the security fiasco of October 7, the date of the initial Hamas attack that caused 1,200 deaths in Israel, there is no guarantee that he will eventually resign. "He can resist public pressure," said political analyst Dahlia Scheindlin. "He has held out so far, despite a trial, civil mobilization and unprecedented general strikes. The only thing that can break him is losing his majority in the Knesset or a Likud rebellion." Israeli public opinion after the war "will move to the right, but not to the extreme right," she added.

The prime minister is carving out political space for himself, while nibbling away at both sides. His radical allies pose no threat to him, according to Ksenia Svetlova, former Knesset lawmaker and member of the Atlantic Council, an American think-tank. "Netanyahu is fighting for his survival. He lets the far right say that Gaza must be reconquered and settlements rebuilt. To counter them, he says he's the only one who can prevent the creation of a Palestinian state. And he sells himself as "Mr. Security." All of this to compete with former chief of staff Benny Gantz, a figure as staid as he is silent, with whom Netanyahu works as part of a national unity government in charge of waging war.

Last Sunday, in the midst of the truce, he paraded through Gaza alongside soldiers in helmets and bullet-proof vests, tirelessly hammering home his three war aims: "eliminating Hamas, returning all our hostages and ensuring that Gaza does not become a threat to the state of Israel again."

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