The ambiguity of Iran's strategy in response to Israel's military escalation in Lebanon was clear in Masoud Pezeshkian's address to the United Nations (UN) General Assembly in New York on Tuesday, September 24. The new Iranian president was at a loss for words when he condemned Israel's "crimes against humanity" and "desperate barbarism," saying that its attacks on Lebanon, which have left at least 560 people dead since Monday, "cannot go unanswered."
But rather than threaten the Israelis with scathing reprisals, as the hard-line wing of the regime and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards regularly do, Pezeshkian appealed to the responsibility of the international community. Israel is conducting an offensive in the Palestinian territory that has already claimed more than 41,000 lives, in retaliation for the attack carried out by Hamas, allied with Iran and Hezbollah, on Israeli soil on October 7, 2023.
As Hezbollah suffers setback after setback, the Islamic Republic shows no sign of coming to the rescue of its Lebanese protégé, believing that this is exactly the trap Benjamin Netanyahu is hoping to lure it into. The Israeli prime minister regularly waves the threat of an operation against Iran's nuclear infrastructure. But Iran did not want the suggestion of a military venture against Israel to spoil the UN meeting, where its emissaries have come to plead with the West for "a new era" in their relations and an end to their country's isolation.
Although they opened a front against Israel in support of Gaza on October 8, 2023, Iran and Hezbollah remain determined to avoid open war with the Jewish state. For the time being, Iran has not retaliated to the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran at the end of July, which was blamed on Israel. The missiles it had sent in the direction of Israel in response to the attack on its consulate in Damascus on April 1, had not, in any case, created the hoped-for deterrent effect. Iran does not have the capacity to help Hezbollah on the Lebanese ground, beyond sending weapons and advisers from the elite Al-Quds Force.
Iran and Hezbollah still believe they can prevent a widening of the conflict, even though Israel is now working to destroy the military infrastructure that Hezbollah has built up over two decades, with Tehran's help. The sabotage of its telecommunications systems, the decapitation of its military command and the destruction of thousands of rocket and missile launchers have dealt Hezbollah a heavy blow, staggering its allies within the "axis of resistance."
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