Why this persistent determination to one day acquire nuclear weapons? Or at least to gain the capacity to assemble one? The theocratic regime that has ruled Tehran since 1979 believes in the virtues of "the bomb." It sees it as a guarantee against foreign aggression and as a way to ensure Iran's strategic dominance in the Middle East. Yet the outcome might well be the opposite: an endless, if not immediately fatal, weakening of the Islamic Republic.

The war Israel has been waging in Iran since the night of Thursday, June 12, is the peak of a cycle that began nearly 40 years ago. Of course, there are also more immediate triggers, from the inconsistencies of US President Donald Trump to the opportunism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Warnings from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the United Nations' under-resourced nuclear non-proliferation watchdog, have also played a role. The agency has sounded the alarm.

Although Iran is a signatory of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), it has long violated some of its obligations. The regime has enriched uranium in quantities (now 400 kilograms) and to levels (60%) that only make sense in the context of one ambition: to one day build a nuclear weapon – even if Tehran denies it.

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