South Asian geopolitics is undergoing a profound upheaval, shaken by the aftershocks of citizen-led revolutions, brutal changes of government and the rivalry between India and China. India, whose influence has been weakened in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, the Maldives and Nepal after its traditional allies were ejected from power, is strengthening its position in Afghanistan, a strategically important country in India's ongoing rivalry with Pakistan. On Wednesday, January 8, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and his Afghan counterpart, Amir Khan Muttaqi, met in Dubai for the first high-level talks between the two countries since the Taliban returned to power in August 2021 after the withdrawal of US forces.
India, like other nations, has not officially recognized the Taliban government, but New Delhi is nonetheless moving towards normalizing relations with Kabul. Communication channels were restored as early as June 2022, when India reopened its embassy in the Afghan capital with a team of "technical experts." In December 2023, China became the first country to appoint a full-fledged ambassador to Kabul.
Following the Afghan-Indian meeting, the Taliban foreign ministry said that it considered India an "important regional and economic partner." The two countries will use Iran's Chabahar Port, some of whose infrastructure was developed by India so that goods could bypass the Pakistani ports of Karachi and Gwadar, to revive bilateral trade. India is also considering development projects in Afghanistan, in addition to its ongoing humanitarian aid program.
The timing of this rapprochement is particularly opportune for India, as its greatest enemy – and neighbor – Pakistan has entered into open conflict with Afghanistan. Narendra Modi's government wants to take advantage of Islamabad's difficulties in regaining its influence and not let China, its main rival, fill the void left by the departure of the West.
Tensions between Kabul and Islamabad have been heightened in recent weeks due to an increase in acts of terrorism by the Pakistani Taliban, who have vowed to overthrow the government and impose Sharia law. In retaliation, on December 24, 2024, the Pakistani army bombed the Afghan province of Paktika, accusing the Taliban regime of harboring Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) camps. Kabul has called these acts "aggression against Afghanistan" and claimed that over 50 civilians were killed in the strikes. India has supported Kabul's position.
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