French Prime Minister François Bayrou's relentless campaign to justify his €44-billion savings plan for 2026 has fooled no one. On Monday, September 8, France will once again find itself plunged into a new political crisis, just over a year after President Emmanuel Macron's disastrous dissolution of the Assemblée Nationale in June 2024 and nine months after the collapse of Michel Barnier's government.

Once again, out of pride and blindness, the executive branch has chosen the risk of appearing as the arsonist when its responsibility should have been to stabilize the situation for as long as possible. Unwilling to fall as his predecessor did, Bayrou is gambling on a vote of confidence in the Assemblée Nationale on Monday – a vote he will, in all likelihood, lose. He has lost on all fronts and, in doing so, is risking dragging the country into a particularly dangerous moment.

Amid the simmering anger in France, the far-right Rassemblement National party stands out as the main beneficiary. Neither Marine Le Pen's legal troubles, her lieutenant Jordan Bardella's youth, the party's abrupt policy shifts between radicalism and a quest for respectability, nor its inconsistency and amateurism on budgetary matters have slowed its momentum. The driving force lies elsewhere: Its leaders have only had to exploit the weaknesses and resignations of those who claimed to oppose them to thrive.

The evolution of the republican right is a case in point. The conservative Les Républicains party has shifted to a position of "anyone but La France Insoumise." Nicolas Sarkozy's comments to Le Figaro on Wednesday, September 2, betting on a dissolution, endorsing the RN as part of the republican spectrum, and presenting it as a credible contender for the prime minister's office, have further loosened the taboo against a rapprochement with the far right. On many issues – security, immigration, challenging the rule of law – the groundwork has already been laid. Sarkozy boasted in 2007 of having reduced the far right's electoral share. The scandal-plagued former president's declarations amount to an inglorious surrender.

The dam is breaking in the business world, too. The campaign led by billionaire businessman Vincent Bolloré, contributing to the rise of the RN, is only one sign. Among major corporations as well as small business owners, the pull towards the far right has grown in step with criticism of a "bloated" state or the left's messaging on taxes. For the first time, Bardella was invited to speak at the summer conference of the MEDEF, the country's main employers' federation. Just days later, he wrote to business leaders promising massive tax cuts and regulatory relief. Such scenes would have been unimaginable not long ago, when Laurence Parisot, then head of the MEDEF, published a book (Un piège bleu Marine, 2011) to warn her peers about the dangers of a nationalist party bent on dismantling the European Union by any means.

What is most troubling is that these changes have occurred without much outcry, as if the RN has become just another party. At its core, however, the RN's platform remains "national preference," which would favor French citizens when it comes to things like jobs and housing benefits. It is a far-right concept that runs counter to all the principles of the French Constitution and carries the seeds of serious discord. As political turbulence resumes, it is more important than ever to remember this.

Le Monde

Translation of an original article published in French on lemonde.fr; the publisher may only be liable for the French version.