The picture is not what the polling institutes had been predicting for months. Expected to lead the first round of the presidential election, held on Sunday, May 18, in Poland, the pro-European liberal mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski, did indeed top the poll with 31.2% of the votes, according to 99% of the ballots counted on Monday morning, but he was closely followed by his rival. Supported by the nationalist-conservative party Law and Justice (PiS), Karol Nawrocki, an admirer of Donald Trump, won 29.7% of the vote.

This came as a significant surprise given the forecasts had predicted a large gap and it suggested a highly contested second round on June 1. The transfer of votes is also likely to be complicated for both camps.

The second surprise came from the exceptionally high score of the far right, divided between the nationalist libertarian party Konfederacja, led by Slawomir Mentzen (14.9%), and the royalist and openly antisemitic candidate, Grzegorz Braun (6.4%). This surge is particularly important among 18-29 year olds, 41% of whom cast a ballot for these candidates (36% for the former, 5% for the latter).

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