For Polish liberals, this was the nightmare scenario. The narrow victory of the nationalist candidate, Karol Nawrocki, over the liberal Rafal Trzaskowski (with 50.89% and 49.11% of the votes, respectively) on Sunday, June 1, set the stage for an explosive period of cohabitation between Donald Tusk's government and the president-elect, who will take office on August 6. For the centrist coalition, which had unexpectedly managed to defeat the populist Law and Justice party (PiS) in 2023, all hopes of implementing a progressive reform program and restoring the rule of law have been shattered. The myth of a "liberal counter-revolution" – of which this presidential race was to be the second act, following the October 2023 legislative elections – has collapsed.

After the announcement of the final results, half of Poland was stunned, left wondering why the other half had chosen to elect a historian with no political experience, a fan of football supporter brawls whose past is tainted by scandals and connections to organized crime. Meanwhile, Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw, is experienced on the international stage and is fluent in five languages. Everyone has put forward their own theories, and several explanations have emerged for this defeat.

You have 79.06% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.