Mexico's election day on Sunday, June 2 is being described by the local press as "unprecedented," "historic" and other superlatives. The National Electoral Institute, which is in charge of the voting process, is describing it as "the most important that the country will ever hold." Indeed, a record 20,708 positions are to be filled, including the presidency, both houses of Congress, nine governorships, and a myriad of mayoralties and local councilorships.

Some 97 million Mexicans have been called to the polls, almost 10 million more than in 2018, when Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (left), commonly known as "AMLO," was elected; according to the Constitution, he cannot run for another term. As feared, these elections will also be remembered as being the most violent to date, with 36 candidates murdered: 10 more than in 2018, according to the think tank Laboratorio Electoral ("electoral laboratory"). It was also the longest campaign on record, with the political parties making a mockery of the official timetable. Although the primaries were not due to start until September 2023, the contenders for the presidency entered the arena three months earlier.

This election is also historic because it will be a battle between two women: former Mexico City mayor (2018-2023) Claudia Sheinbaum, from the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), a party that AMLO created, against Senator Xochitl Galvez, the candidate of the right-wing opposition parties (Institutional Revolutionary Party, PRI; National Action Party, PAN; Party of the Democratic Revolution, PRD), united in a common front – again, a novelty.

Furthermore, the two headliners also boast impressive CVs: Sheinbaum is a scientist and energy specialist, and Galvez is a robotics engineer. The left-wing candidate comes from the country's intellectual and privileged middle class; the right-wing candidate was born in a rural, indigenous, and impoverished part of Mexico. Despite this tantalizing tableau, however, the fight was dead in the water. Sheinbaum began with such a head start that Galvez couldn't catch up: although this election has indeed been unprecedented, it has also been without suspense.

After the primaries, AMLO handed "el baston de mando" (the "baton of command") to Sheinbaum, who automatically benefited from his high approval rating, which is still 60% after six years in office. Social policy, notably the sharp increase in the minimum wage launched by AMLO in 2018, has helped reduce poverty. This record remains Sheinbaum's main asset. "In addition to being supported by the president's loyalists, Claudia has won over a part of the middle class, who want a more effective government than AMLO's," explained Carlos Perez Ricart, an assistant professor at the Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (Center for Research and Teaching in Economics; CIDE). "According to the polls, 25% of voters who had not voted for Lopez Obrador would be willing to do so for Claudia. The scenario is therefore very favorable for Morena."

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