Far from the daily military reports on the Moscow army's ability to snatch bits of territory, Ukrainian military analysts, when trying to understand the impact of the ongoing talks on a ceasefire – Russians and Americans met for the second day in a row, Tuesday, March 25, in Riyadh, to discuss a partial truce – agree on two points: The first is that a pause in the fighting will not mean that Russia will back away from its war objectives; The second is that, paradoxically, a respite on the battlefield could benefit Moscow more than Kyiv.

"A ceasefire would clearly be to the advantage of the Russians," said Taras Chmut, director of the Come Back Alive Foundation, which supports the armed forces. "The situation is very tough for their army, and it would give them time to fortify their positions. And if a break lasted at least six months, it would allow them to rebuild their offensive capability."

Chmut, a former non-commissioned officer in the marine corps, believes that "the world must understand that the situation is very difficult for Russia, even if it is less visible in a totalitarian system" than in Ukraine. He also believes that it is important to consider the fact that "a ceasefire would cause division in Ukrainian society. It would raise the question of demobilization. In the event of a pause, the soldiers will not wait at the front until peace negotiations are concluded. And when Ukraine is weakened, someone will fire a shot, and Russia will go back on the attack." Mykola Bielieskov, an analyst at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, also believes that "a ceasefire is an opportunity for Russia and a danger for Ukraine."

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