The ripple effect of tariffs announced by Donald Trump has continued to spread throughout the global economy. In its forecasts published on Tuesday, May 13, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) predicted a significant slowdown in growth in Central Europe.

For the entire region covered by the institution (40 countries, ranging from Central Europe to Central Asia, including the Balkans, the Caucasus, parts of the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa), growth is expected to be 3% in 2025, which is 0.5 percentage points less than was anticipated in September 2024 (including a 0.2-point downward revision since February). Most of this slowdown is attributed to US tariffs. "Their increase is significant, rising from an average of 1.8% for the region we cover to 10.5%," said Odile Renaud-Basso, president of the EBRD.

"These forecasts are made 'in an uncertainty that has never been so high,'" she continued, with announcements and counter-announcements on tariffs making the situation particularly unclear. For its calculations, the EBRD based its analysis on the situation as of mid-April: US tariffs of 10% on all imports, as well as 25% on steel, aluminum and especially automobiles.

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