Yevgeny Prigozhin's last known video appearance, with a Wagner badge on his fatigues and an assault rifle slung over his shoulder, is set against the backdrop of a Sahelian landscape. In a final act of defiance, the head of the mercenary group, presumed dead in the crash of the plane he boarded on Wednesday, August 23, claimed that the group "makes Russia even greater on all continents, and Africa – more free."

The spectacular rise in Russia's influence on the African continent is undoubtedly his greatest achievement. In French-speaking Africa, the Wagner group has capitalized on France's diplomatic missteps, the rejection of French foreign policy and military operations and, more broadly, on accumulated social frustrations, to offer the Kremlin geopolitical victories at low cost.

Many analysts identified Mali as the location of Prigozhin's last video. According to several sources, he had also been to the Central African Republic a few days earlier to visit his paramilitary company's facilities in the country. It was an African tour to "save his empire and try to prevent the signing of an agreement with the Russian Ministry of Defense," said researcher Lou Osborn, a member of the organization All Eyes on Wagner and co-author of the book Wagner. Enquête au coeur du système Prigojine ("Wagner: Investigating the Prigozhin System"), to be published on September 15. "Away from Africa, where he built his legend, Prigozhin lost all usefulness and knew he was more vulnerable," added Osborn.

On the continent, the Russian businessman had used his charisma to forge personal relationships with certain leaders. One of the last known photos of him shows him with the chief of protocol for Faustin-Archange Touadéra, the president of the Central African Republic, at the Africa-Russia summit in Saint Petersburg at the end of July. His appearance backstage at the event was widely discussed, as it occurred less than a month after Wagner's revolt against the Russian army.

From Libya, where its men fought alongside Marshal Haftar in the failed campaign to take Tripoli in 2019-2020, to Sudan, where it supported General Hemetti, via Mozambique, where its operation failed after a few weeks with numerous casualties, Wagner's military record in Africa remains mixed.

Only in the Central African Republic (CAR) can the group, initially tasked with providing close protection for President Touadéra and training the national army, boast of having repelled the rebels threatening the capital in January 2021. In this undertaking, Wagner's forces unwittingly received support from forces deployed by Rwanda, as well as the blue helmets of MINUSCA, the United Nations peacekeeping operation in CAR.

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