Residents of Seine-et-Marne and Eure-et-Loir with their feet in the water, a boater dead in Sète, transport disrupted, 48,000 homes still without power at midday on Thursday, October 10: Hurricane Kirk, which swept across France, dumped sustained and long-lasting downpours, exceptional for the north of the country. The phenomenon, however, is set to multiply with climate change.
With between 72 and 74 mm of precipitation in Noirmoutier (Vendée), Le Perray (Yvelines) and Nogent-le-Rotrou (Eure-et-Loir), it often rained as much in 24 hours between Wednesday and Thursday as it usually does in a month. In the capital, the Paris-Montsouris station recorded 71 mm in one day, a record for October for a century (1920). "It's very rare to see this kind of rainfall in autumn in the Paris region," said Patrick Galois, forecaster at Météo-France. It is even unusual for the year as a whole: In the last 150 years, there have only been six days with more rain, all months combined.
The heavy rainfall caused widespread flooding. Major flooding is underway on the Grand Morin (Seine-et-Marne) and the Loir Amont (Eure-et-Loir). Major flooding is affecting several regions, from Pays-de-la-Loire to Normandy, from Île-de-France to eastern Picardy. At 5:00 pm on Thursday, 161 towns were still under flood watch. The passage of the depression was also accompanied by strong wind gusts, with 139 km/h at Villard-de-Lans (Isère), 121 km/h at Socoa (Ciboure, Pyrénées-Atlantiques) and 113 km/h at Lyon-Bron (Rhône).
"This episode came after a year of excess rainfall over much of France," said Galois. "Saturated soils are therefore not always able to absorb them, which causes flooding." September proved to be the wettest month in 25 years, and spring ranks 4th since 1959. The period from January 1 to October 9 showed a rainfall surplus of 30% above normal. In Paris, for example, cumulative rainfall stood at 870 mm, compared with 670 mm on the 1991-2020 average.
Climate change made Storm Kirk worse and it will lead to more intense episodes in the future. According to an attribution study by the Climameter group of scientists, warming increased Kirk's rainfall by 20% and winds by 12%. "Hurricane Kirk is a clear sign of how climate change, fueled by greenhouse gas emissions, is altering our weather," said Davide Faranda, a climatologist at the Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace.
Storm Kirk, which is crossing the Paris region, caused damage to one of France's Assemblée Nationale buildings on Wednesday, October 9. In the evening, several MPs shared images of water falling from the ceilings and streaming down the walls. Several centimeters of water appear to have accumulated on the floor. According to Renaissance MP Denis Masséglia, the fire department intervened and the building was evacuated. The Jacques Chaban-Delmas building houses most of the MPs' offices, as well as an auditorium.
Storms and hurricanes, as well as extreme rainfall events, are becoming more violent as a result of the warming: They draw more energy from warmer water – the Atlantic Ocean has been achieving record highs for the past year. And they are associated with more rain since the atmosphere can hold 7% more moisture with each additional degree of warming.
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