Ukraine, reeling from the shock of Russia's invasion, its war crimes, and enthusiasm over its military victories during the urgency of the initial months of the war, has had little time to reflect on the nature of the conflict. Soon after came winter, and with it the cold. The war became a battle of positions and attrition. And now fall has arrived, and with it, a ruthless meter-by-meter combat. The challenge for Kyiv today is to endure a protracted war. As the man who started this war by invading Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin is consequently the only person in a position to put an end to it by withdrawing his army from the battlefield. He learned this the hard way after his plan of conquering Kyiv in three days turned into a conflict with an end no one − including Putin himself − has yet been able to make out.

While the future is unpredictable, there are some who possess insight. They have a clear grasp of things and, often before anyone else, fully appreciate the risks and hazards of combat and the difficulties that lie ahead. They understand that war is synonymous with uncertainty, random chance and the unexpected. In Ukraine, one of these wise men is Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi. A former special operations commander who made history by thwarting the initial war plan of the powerful Russian army, he has warned that the conflict could last a long time. Still, while he occupies the best position for assessing the situation and has remained the most popular man in the country, few Ukrainians have heeded his warning, or even truly understood what he meant.

Zaluzhnyi has continued to issue this warning to his country ever since the launch of Russia's invasion. He has done so in writing, as in a September 2022 article co-authored with General Mykhailo Zabrodskyi and titled "Prospects for running a military campaign in 2023," as well as in a rare media interview. He has underlined two obvious truths: First, Putin's goal is to conquer Ukraine, and a fresh attempt to seize the capital cannot be ruled out. Second, Kyiv's objective of liberating all Ukrainian territory up to the 1991 borders, while not out of reach, will require time and enormous effort.

Russia's Plan B

The idea that Russians and Ukrainians are engaged in a protracted war is, however, backed up by established facts. While the order for invasion may have been issued on February 24, 2022, Russia's military had been preparing to go to war for years and the roots of the armed conflict go back to 2014, with the annexation of Crimea and the clashes in the Donbas region. The war will therefore soon be 10 years old, which testifies to Russia's determination to conquer Ukraine rather than act on some transient whim. Clearly, it would be hard for Moscow to abandon its campaign. The failure of its assault on Kyiv, which was aimed at the head of power and the heart of the country, hinted at a lengthier conflict: The long war is simply Russia's Plan B.

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