It's a €40 billion savings effort. This impressive rounded sum has become a political slogan for French Prime Minister François Bayrou and his cabinet, who have cited it repeatedly over the last three months. They brandish it as evidence of both the severity of the budget situation and their own determination. Bayrou is set to unveil his plan for achieving that goal in the 2026 budget on Tuesday, July 15.

However, the figure warrants closer scrutiny. The objective is rather an artificial political construct that is highly debatable and has been criticized by public finance specialists. Nevertheless, it has gained acceptance in the media and among the public.

It all began on April 13. Ahead of a major public finance conference organized by the prime minister's office, Economy Minister Eric Lombard set the tone. He told French news channel BFMTV that returning the public deficit to 4.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2026, as the government pledged, "will require an additional €40 billion effort," which he described as "very considerable." He added that it would mainly be savings, but that "it could also be increased revenues linked to growth."

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