The French far right didn't wait for the new Barnier government to get to work to criticize it. "Would you care for some more of this rotten dish?" wrote the Rassemblement National's deputy president in the Assemblée Nationale, Sébastien Chenu, on X on September 19, as the new governmental line-up of conservatives and representatives of the former presidential majority was being drafted.
"A government with no future," confirmed Jordan Bardella two days later, when it was officially appointed. With its 126 deputies, RN leader Marine Le Pen could automatically dismiss this government that is so far from her liking by voting in favor of the left's motion of no confidence – announced for the new government's general policy statement, which is due on October 1. But Le Pen, who is the president of the RN group of MPs in the Assemblée, intends to take advantage of this unprecedented power to increase the pressure on a government that owes its reprieve only to concessions made to the far right.
Since Barnier was named prime minister on September 5, the RN has been careful not to set its "red lines" too precisely. The former European commissioner knows that, after having avoided people deemed "disrespectful" by the far-right party, he will have to give pledges on the absence of tax increases and on the fight against immigration and insecurity to avoid being blocked in parliament. It's up to him to come up with measures likely to satisfy – at least for a while – the former Front National.
Several party executives are betting that the prime minister won't survive the 2025 budget review, for which they predict article 49.3 will be used, followed by a vote of no confidence in an Assemblée Nationale paralyzed by the "tripolarization" resulting from the last legislative elections on June 30 and July 7. But the RN is counting on each deadline, starting with the general policy statement to push their ideological pawns. Lower VAT on energy, reform of the State Medical Aid, increased budget for the expulsion of illegal aliens, abolition of independent authorities: the RN likes to quietly drip-feed the commitments that could lead to its support. Without any guarantees or limits.
Le Pen will keep bailing out the government for as long as she sees fit to legitimate her policies and feed the narrative of her growing influence. "We're going to try to get as much out of him as possible on immigration and security issues. The more pledges [Barnier] makes, the longer we'll let him last," summed up RN MP Matthias Renault. "We want to capitalize as much as possible on his statements, forcing him to legitimate our discourse."
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