An aggressive state sometimes betrays its anxiety. In less than 24 hours, Iran broke away from the cautious strategy it had followed since the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the war in the Gaza Strip. On January 15 and 16, the regime launched a series of strikes in Syria, Iraq and Pakistan. The ballistic missiles it fired, in retaliation for attacks on its soil and against its allies in the Middle East, were intended as a show of force. They also represented a risky gamble, or "a miscalculation" in the eyes of experts, provoking a diplomatic crisis with Islamabad and a systematic retaliation on its territory on January 18, as well as strong protests from Baghdad.

Since October 7, Tehran has let its allies in the "axis of resistance" open coordinated fronts in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, in support of Palestinian Hamas, while Iran itself has been busy in the diplomatic arena. Its emissaries pleaded for an end to the war in Gaza and regional de-escalation. Ali Vaez, an expert with the International Crisis Group (ICG), said Iran's primary objective after October 7 was to avoid falling into what it saw as an Israeli trap – a direct confrontation with them and the United States – while at the same time dissuading Israel from expanding the field of war.

The strategy that Iran adopted from that point on was the result of trial and error rather than long-developed calculations. Iran was taken by surprise on October 7, which knocked out its prior strategic calculations, said Vaez. Tehran had opted for a strategy of regional appeasement since the signing, in March 2023, of a détente agreement with its great Sunni rival, Saudi Arabia. Indirect negotiations were underway with the US to obtain a partial lifting of US sanctions. The two countries were planning to return to the nuclear negotiating table in mid-October," said Vaez.

"At a strategic level, Iran was trying to achieve a new level of deterrence with Israel by setting up the possibility of a multi-front attack from the Golan Heights, Gaza, Lebanon and the West Bank. But a test in April 2023 showed that two of the fronts [the West Bank and the Golan Heights] were not ready," said Vaez. Hamas's bloody attack on Israeli territory on October 7, which left some 1,140 people dead and 240 taken hostage, turned this plan on its head. The voluntarism of the "unity on all fronts" slogan came up against the reality of power relations and risk calculations. In the name of measured and systematic retaliation, fronts were set up in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen, while those in Syria and the West Bank remained dormant.

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