How geopolitics and climate change are disrupting shipping routes
In DepthConflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, and elsewhere, combined with the effects of global warming, are disturbing maritime traffic. New routes are being employed around the globe.
Caught up in the upheavals of geopolitics and global warming, shipping routes are experiencing major disruption. In the space of a few months, traffic has faced major complications on two routes that are crucial to global trade.
The Panama Canal, which links the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and through which 5% of the world's maritime trade passes, has seen its traffic fall by 30% due to an unprecedented drought that has lowered the water level in the locks. Ships linking China to the east coast of the American continent have to wait several weeks and pay millions of dollars to acquire a right of way, or unload their goods to transport them overland.
At the other end of the planet, the strategic route linking Europe to Asia via the Suez Canal and the Red Sea has lost 40% of its traffic since December 2023, in the wake of the Israeli offensive in Gaza. In Yemen, the Iran-backed Houthis, who claim to be acting "in solidarity" with the Palestinians, are stepping up attacks on ships around the Bab el-Mandab Strait. Although the number of incidents has fallen since the end of January, the threat remains high, as do insurance premiums. Many ships now prefer to sail along the African coast, via the Cape of Good Hope, which increases transport times and costs.
Grain trade turned upside down
Since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, disruptions to Black Sea shipping deeply impacted global grain trade. Egypt, whose imports of Ukrainian wheat plummeted by 81% in the first eight months of the conflict, was forced to seek emergency supplies from Russia, the United States and the European Union. Ethiopia, meanwhile, turned to Argentina and the US.
80% of goods traded in the world depend on maritime traffic
Panama Canal
Hit by drought
Gibraltar
Bosporus Strait
Black Sea
Blockaded by Russian, access controlled by Turkey
Suez Canal
Weak link in global traffic
Bab el-Mandeb Strait
Under fire from Yemen's Houthis
Cape of Good Hope
An expensive alternative to the Suez Canal
Since the attacks by the Houthis in the Red Sea, many shipowners have opted to bypass Africa, despite rising costs and delays. This detour leads to a decline in service to Mediterranean ports.
Gulf of Guinea
Piracy hub
The Gulf of Guinea, most dangerous maritime zone in the world, accounts for 90% of all kidnappings at sea. Although this region is not crossed by a major trade route, pirates are now capable of attacking on the high seas, complicating surveillance and rescue operations..
Strait of Hormuz
Malacca Strait
One ship every eight minutes
An essential passageway between Asia and Europe, this is the second most frequently used strait, after Hormuz, for transporting oil. A ship passes through every eight minutes, despite the high risk of piracy. With rising tensions in the China Sea, alternative routes are being studied, such as the drilling of a canal through the Kra Isthmus in Thailand, or the creation of a land corridor via Burma. These projects are not unanimously supported by the countries concerned.
Taiwan Strait
Eyed by China
China, which claims sovereignty over Taiwan, is stepping up intimidation actions around the island, at the risk of disrupting traffic on this strategic route, through which 48% of the world's container ships passed in 2022. Bypassing the strait would push ships towards Philippine waters, which are affected by typhoons.
The ports of southeast China
n the eye of the storm
Port infrastructures are particularly vulnerable to the risks of storms and flooding, amplified by global warming. In the summer of 2023, typhoon Doksuri hit China, causing the worst flooding in half a century in Beijing, and forcing the country's major southeastern ports to turn away dozens of ships, to the point of disrupting global logistics chains.
The Arctic
The emergence of a polar route
Melting ice could open up this route and shorten journeys between Europe and Asia. However, this is still a long way off, not least because of the lack of port infrastructure for large-tonnage ships. The route, open for part of the year, is only accessible to certain ships equipped for extreme conditions, or escorted by Russian icebreakers.
The concern is such that the EU revised its strategy in October 2023, seeking to maintain stability and security along key shipping routes. In addition to wars, the rise in drug trafficking increases the risk of ships being detained for inspection. Piracy, which is on the rise again in the Indian Ocean now that the naval forces of the Washington-led coalition have departed for the Red Sea, represents an additional threat. "Attacks, most probably linked to illegal fishing disputes, have been resuming off the coast of Somalia and in the Indian Ocean since November 2023," pointed out Louis Borer, maritime security analyst at Risk Intelligence. "More ambitious attacks on the high seas have also been reported – notably in the Gulf of Guinea, the world's piracy hotspot, with violent, complex, sometimes long-range attacks."
Trade tensions are also reconfiguring the flow of goods, 80% of which are transported by sea, as is the worsening relationship between Beijing and Washington, against the backdrop of a tariff war. The share of containers from China unloaded on US soil has plummeted from 40% in 2017 to 31% in 2022. But over the same period, the share from Vietnam rose from 4% to 8%, and from 3% to 5% from India.
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