Is this really a surprise? Some Western officials, disappointed by the slow progress made by Ukrainian forces in the counteroffensive they launched in late spring, seem to have just discovered that Russia's war in Ukraine is likely to be a long one.
The appalling incompetence of Russian strategists in the first phase of the invasion, in February and March 2022, the formidable resistance of the Ukrainians and their leaders, and then the success of the first counteroffensive at the end of summer 2022 around Kharkiv and Kherson, may for a time have fed the illusion of a brief conflict. But Russian forces reorganized over the winter, while Ukraine's troops, outnumbered, are suffering from fatigue and the after-effects of 18 months of particularly grueling trench warfare.
Westerners, and Europeans in particular, have been very much mistaken in this affair. They were wrong, for the most part, in refusing to believe that Vladimir Putin would invade Ukraine. They were mistaken to initially overestimate the quality of the Russian army and underestimate the determination of Ukrainians to defend their country. They were mistaken to dither, again and again, over the equipment to be supplied to Ukraine, which they for the most part ended up sending with delays that penalized Kyiv's forces. They were mistaken for failing to anticipate ammunition needs when it should have been done, inflicting the cost of cruel shortages on combatants in the field. Finally, they were mistaken in thinking that this second counteroffensive could be swift and bring the Russian command to negotiate under the shock of Ukraine's advance.
But the Kremlin is showing no inclination to negotiate – even less so when you make it clear that you fear escalation and that you want to avoid humiliating it. The summer counteroffensive is proving laborious largely because while Ukraine waited for the equipment promised by the West, Russia had plenty of time to bring in fresh, more professional troops, fortify their defense lines and lay hundreds of thousands of mines.
President Volodymyr Zelensky greatly annoyed his Western colleagues at the NATO summit in Vilnius on July 11 and 12, complaining about the slow pace of arms deliveries. Admittedly, the stocks and production capacities of certain countries are limited, but the cost of this conflict in human lives rests exclusively on the Ukrainians. Can we ignore this factor in our relations with a country whose fight is repeatedly described as essential to our values, and to the European order being brought down by Putin? NATO countries would never allow their armed forces to launch such a counteroffensive against the Russian army without strong air force cover, yet this is what we expect from the Ukrainians by refusing to supply them with fighter jets.
Yes, this war is likely to be a long one. The only way to shorten it is to step up military assistance to Ukraine, deliver more long-range missiles (on which Berlin is still hesitating), fight more effectively against sanction evasion, stand firm against Moscow, and communicate the need to do this to the public.
Translation of an original article published in French on lemonde.fr; the publisher may only be liable for the French version.