US Vice President JD Vance's speech at the Munich Security Conference on February 14, not only marked a turning point in transatlantic defense relations. It also shattered a close economic trust between Germany and the US formed in the aftermath of the Second World War and confirmed the worst fears of business circles: the Trump administration will do European exporters no favors. Germany is far more dependent on the US economy than it was in 2017, at the start of the Republican president's first term. This historic split could put a further strain on an already sluggish German economy if the threatened tariffs are effectively implemented.

Since 2017, German manufacturers, gradually realizing the dangers of their dependence on exports to China, have been counting on the dynamic US market to diversify their outlets and supply sources.

In the first half of 2024, the US thus dethroned the Middle Kingdom as Germany's leading trading partner (imports and exports), putting an end to eight years of Beijing's interrupted domination of Berlin's commercial exchanges. According to detailed figures from the National Statistics Institute, the US absorbed 10% of German exports in 2023, at $157.9 billion (€151 billion) worth of goods, the highest value for 20 years. In the same year, German foreign trade recorded a trade surplus of 63.3 billion euros with the US. A new record.

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