Fifty years after the Yom Kippur War and the first oil shock, the attack by Hamas commandos on Israel on Saturday, October 7 has created pressure on the energy markets. Crude oil prices fell back slightly on Tuesday after climbing 4% on Monday. North Sea Brent (- 0.56%), the European benchmark, stabilized above 87 dollars (around 82 euros). The US equivalent, West Texas Intermediate (- 0.47%), was close to 86 dollars.

Geopolitical reflexes are the main reason for the turbulence in black gold prices. As Israeli bombardments intensify over a Gaza Strip now deprived of electricity, traders anticipate an extension of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the Middle East.

"The Hamas attack has had no concrete impact on oil production," said Francis Perrin, director of research at France's Institute for International and Strategic Affairs. Indeed, Israel is hardly extracting any oil: just 0.001% of world supply in 2022, according to data compiled by another French organization, the Comité Professionnel du Pétrole (Professional Committee on Oil).

"The rise seen in the price of a barrel is better explained by concerns and pessimistic scenarios surrounding Iran," said Perrin. The Islamic Republic is still a major player (around 4% of global supply in 2022) despite sanctions imposed by the US in 2018, aimed at preventing Iranian exports. The country's crude oil production is currently estimated at three million barrels a day, part of which is destined for China, according to the Norwegian firm Rystad Energy.

The US, Israel's historical ally, may now be called upon to tighten the enforcement of existing sanctions against Tehran. The sanctions themselves could even be increased if Iran is found to have helped plan terrorist acts by Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist movement with which it has close ties. A story in The Wall Street Journal mentions possible involvement, which Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's highest authority, denies although he has welcomed the October 7 offensive.

The situation could also change if the Lebanese group Hezbollah, a Shiite formation also backed by Iran, opens a second front against Israel. "If Hezbollah, beyond a few shots already claimed, enters fully into the battle, the probability of a regional conflagration, and therefore of an Israeli-Iranian confrontation, will increase, with a major potential impact on the oil market," said Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega, Director of the Energy and Climate Center at the French Institute of International Relations.

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