Donald Trump's military threat on January 7 against Greenland, a constituent territory of the Kingdom of Denmark and a NATO member state, marked a turning point for Nordic countries. On that day, the American ally, which had been seen as a last-resort security insurance, turned into a threat. Faced with this confidence shock of unprecedented intensity, Copenhagen did not forget that it had taken out another insurance policy, very useful in the event of a crisis: the EU. As if to remind Washington, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen visited Berlin and Paris on January 28, before heading to NATO headquarters in Brussels.

In Greenland, the debate on the island's future, ahead of the March 11 legislative elections, was suddenly anchored in reality. Greenlanders were able to perceive what it would mean to be independent in this kind of environment. Certainties of the past now seem less obvious, and some are now considering a rapprochement with the EU.

To understand the background, it should be remembered that Greenland did not choose to join the European Economic Community (EEC) when Denmark became a member in 1973. During the Danish referendum on EEC membership in 1972, the island had no autonomy: then a Danish territorial subdivision, it voted no, but the whole of mainland Denmark and Greenland voted in favor of membership, resulting in a territory that became European despite itself between 1973 and 1985. This episode led to Greenland's internal autonomy in 1979, subsequently reinforced in 2009.

Ironically, it is this progression towards independence which, no doubt, contributed to Donald Trump's interest in Greenland, which could lead to the island's return to the European Union.

About-face

That may seem a long way off. But the reshuffling of the balance of power could be a game-changer. Who would have imagined Denmark so quickly renouncing one of its exemption clauses in the Maastricht Treaty by agreeing to participate in the EU's Common Security and Defense Policy? Yet this about-face took place in the space of a few months, when the security threat from Russia suddenly became immediate and real. Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, not only prompted Finland and Sweden to join NATO, but it also led to a referendum in Denmark on June 1, 2022, in which over two-thirds of voters agreed that their country should modify its defense strategy.

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