Abandoning the use of fossil fuels could, for the first time, be one of the central topics of the annual global climate negotiations. The stakes are immense: While 90% of CO2 emissions originate from the extraction and combustion of coal, oil and gas, governments are still planning to produce, by 2030, more than twice the quantity of fossil fuels compatible with the aim of limiting warming to 1.5°C by 2030. By doing this, they are hoping to avoid the most devastating effects of the crisis.
With just a few weeks to go before the opening of the 28th World Climate Conference (COP28), scheduled for November 30 to December 12 in Dubai (United Arab Emirates), the "Production Gap Report" once again highlights the extent of the difference between the plans of the main fossil fuel-producing countries and the essential production cuts advocated by scientists and society.
"This report complements the work on the demand side," explained Michael Lazarus, Director of the US branch of the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and one of the main authors of this work. "On the demand side, we need alternatives to fossil fuels, and these alternatives have developed remarkably in recent years. But if we don't also make progress on the supply side, our ability to lead the transition will be compromised."
To produce this report, published on Wednesday, November 8, experts from the United Nations Environment Programme, SEI, Climate Analytics, E3G and the International Institute for Sustainable Development analyzed the energy roadmaps of 19 of the 20 biggest fossil fuel producers (Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and the United States – data for South Africa was not available). These countries alone account for over 80% of total fossil fuel production.
According to the plans from these countries, global coal production in 2030 should be 460% higher than the level compatible with the median scenario for meeting the most ambitious target of the Paris Agreement. Oil production would be 29% higher, and gas 82%.
By 2050, the gap between anticipated production and the level needed to limit global warming is even greater. "Compared to our previous assessments, the size of this gap remains largely unchanged despite encouraging signs of a transition to clean energy," noted SEI's Ploy Achakulwisut. "The persistence of this gap jeopardizes the possibility of a well-managed and equitable transition, and it also conflicts with governments' climate commitments."
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