Without vigorous political action, approximately 60% of adults and one-third of children and adolescents worldwide will be overweight or obese by 2050, according to projections published on Tuesday, March 4, in the British medical journal The Lancet. These estimates, derived from research conducted by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) program – an international epidemiological research initiative coordinated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) in Seattle – warn of the coming escalation of this health burden.

Obesity – statistically defined as a body mass index (BMI) over 30 in adults – and overweight, classified as a BMI over 25, are associated with an increased risk of numerous diseases, including type 2 diabetes, heart disease, high blood pressure, and various cancers. Obesity and overweight are already the fifth leading cause of death worldwide.

The prevalence of overweight and obesity has more than doubled in the past 30 years, affecting 2.1 billion adults and nearly 500 million children and adolescents in 2021. Obesity alone affects more than one billion people, according to data published in 2024 in The Lancet. Some regions have reached alarming levels: In parts of Oceania, the Middle East and North Africa, obesity rates are among the highest in the world. In Tonga, more than 70% of women are obese, a figure projected to rise beyond 87% by 2050. Similarly, Egypt is expected to reach the same rate among women by mid-century. Among high-income countries, the United States currently has the highest obesity prevalence, affecting nearly half of its population.

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