Chair of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party Alice Weidel had good reason to smile. She told media that she was "very proud" after the polls closed on Sunday, October 8, in Bavaria and Hesse. In these two Länder, which account for almost a quarter of Germany's population, the AfD is surging to unprecedented levels, while the parties in Chancellor Scholz's coalition are in sharp decline.

In Bavaria, the AfD is projected to get 16% of the vote, according to provisional results, almost six points more than the last regional elections in 2018. In Hesse, it is projected to get 18%, five points more than five years ago. These results confirm the far-right's country-wide surge, recorded by polling institutes. If parliamentary elections were held in Germany today, the AfD would top 20%, according to the latest surveys. In 2021, it obtained 10.3% of the vote. The AfD's only setback on Sunday was the narrow defeat of its candidate in Bitterfeld-Wolfen (Saxony-Anhalt), where the second round of a municipal by-election was won by the incumbent conservative mayor (CDU).

The big loser in Sunday's elections is Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD). In Hesse, where SPD's list was headed by Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, it won 15% of the vote, down almost five points on 2018. In Bavaria, it is projected to barely top 8%, almost two points less than five years ago. Scholz's main partners, the Greens, were also punished. In Bavaria, they are expected to get just under 15% (-2.8). In Hesse, where they are also likely to receive 15% of the vote, their decline will be even greater, around five points compared to 2018.

For the Liberal Democrats (FDP), the third component of Scholz's three-way coalition, the setback was even more stinging. With less than 3% in Bavaria (-2.5 points), they failed to obtain the 5% needed to be represented in the regional parliament. In Hesse, they face a similar fate, with 4.9% of the vote, according to provisional results (-2 points). For Finance Minister Christian Lindner's party, this October 8 is another black day: Since joining the government alongside the SPD and the Greens at the end of 2021, the FDP has suffered defeat after defeat in regional elections, leading it to continually harden its stance – particularly on immigration – and creating major upheavals within the government.

For the conservatives (CDU-CSU), in opposition at federal level since Angela Merkel's departure and the election of Scholz, Sunday's results are good, but raise important questions for the future. In Hesse, the CDU came out on top with just over 34% of the vote (+7 points). In Bavaria, the CSU also won with around 36.5% of the vote, but lost almost a point to record its worst score since 1950.

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