Germany's conservative CDU/CSU alliance led by Friedrich Merz won the election on Sunday, February 23 with between 28.5 and 29 percent of the vote, according to first TV exit polls. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) followed in second place with 19.5 to 20 percent, roughly doubling its result in the last election in 2021, based on initial figures from public broadcasters ARD and ZDF.
The surge of the anti-immigration AfD was fuelled by public fears over immigration and security after a spate of deadly attacks blamed on migrants and worries about the ailing economy. Despite the strong result, the AfD is set to stay out of power for now, because its possible coalition partners refuse all cooperation with the far right.
If the exit polls are confirmed in the final count, Merz looks near certain to become the next chancellor of Europe's top economy. But in order to build a majority in parliament, he would have to team up with one or more parties, potentially the Social Democrats (SPD) of outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The SPD recorded what was likely to be their worst result in the history of Germany's post-war democracy, with between 16 and 16.5 percent.
The Greens, another possible partner for the CDU/CSU, had 12 to 13.5 percent of the votes according to the exit polls. But the exact opportunities could depend on the final result for smaller parties. The far-left Linke looked to have cleared the five-percent hurdle to enter the Bundestag, with 8.5 to 9 percent. The pro-business Free Democrats (FDP), who were in government until recently, were right around the five-percent threshold, as was another far-left party, newcomer the BSW.