Over several days, the German Federal Statistical Office, Destatis, has been publishing the results of the latest population census, which ran from May 2022 to January 2023, at regular intervals. The survey enables statistical estimates to be compared with the reality on the ground. The 2022-2023 figures have come as a surprise. On June 20, Germany discovered that it had 1.4 million fewer inhabitants than it had thought: 82.7 million people, and not 84.1 million as statisticians had previously believed. Since the last census, in 2011, the population had grown by just 2.5 million, who were increasingly concentrated in urban areas.

The "gap" in the population statistics was mainly explained by foreigners: 10.9 million foreign nationals currently live in Germany, which is 4.8 million more than recorded at the last census in 2011, but 1 million fewer than had been anticipated until now. The causes of this discrepancy have not yet been fully elucidated, according to Destatis.

One explanation would be that many foreigners may have left the country without completing the Abmeldung procedure, i.e., de-registering from municipal registers, which, in principle, is compulsory. This discrepancy is a headache for some town councils, as it will have unfortunate consequences for their finances, since municipal grants are partly based on each town's number of inhabitants.

High housing costs

Another surprising finding in these times of acute real estate crisis was the large number of vacant apartments and houses: There are 1.9 million unoccupied homes, a good third of which – around 700,000 – could be occupied within three months, the statisticians noted. This corresponds to a vacancy rate of 4.3%. The figure is only slightly up when compared to 2011, but the current situation in Germany is very different: High housing costs are now considered one of the most pressing social problems. In total, there are 43.1 million homes in the country, which, on paper, would be more than enough to meet the needs of 83 million people – if they were in the right locations.

Indeed, the vacant homes actually reflect population movements within the country: The unoccupied homes are mainly to be found in rural areas of eastern and central Germany, the inhabitants of which are leaving. Meanwhile Germany's big cities (Berlin, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Munich, Leipzig, Dresden) and their surrounding areas; as well as rural areas in highly industrialized regions, such as Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg; are experiencing strong population growth rates. Even in cities, demand doesn't always match supply: The census recorded 17.4 million single-person households, an increase of 3.5 million since 2011, which has created a need for more smaller housing units.

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