The more days go by, the more the parallels between the reaction of the United States after 9/11 and that of Israel after October 7, 2023, become apparent. After the use of force to the point of folly, which in Gaza resulted in an appalling human toll, comes the time of disorder, the time of failure to anticipate "the day ahead of the day after": in other words, the transition to a political objective.

In Iraq and Afghanistan, the US at least had the merit of having a project: imposing democracy from above, even if it failed in record time, faced with a reality far more complex than what the neoconservative strategists understood. In Gaza, a territory it is supposed to be familiar with, Israel is now displaying carelessness to the point of shaking the war cabinet set up after the largest massacre of civilians and hostage-taking in the history of the Israeli nation.

The cabinet's wavering stems from the fighting the Israeli army has been forced to wage for several weeks now in the north of the territory, precisely where it had concentrated in the first months of its devastating offensive. The persistent guerrilla warfare, which represents a return to Hamas's roots – it was born under Israeli occupation – puts into perspective the Israeli government's argument that a large-scale military operation in Rafah, the last town to escape its steamroller, would enable a "total victory" against the Islamic militia.

It would undoubtedly be the case if one of Hamas's imperatives were to preserve its hold on Gaza, not only in terms of security but also in administrative terms. The decision taken on October 7, 2023, showing the military wing's determination to go to extremes and its use of the population and of hospital and educational infrastructures as shields, show that this is not the case.

Thinking about the 'day after'

The destabilization of the Gaza Strip overcome by chaos and permanent violence can still be avoided if we start from the premise that if Israel is incapable of proposing a transition, it's because it is categorically opposed to imagining a "day after" with a political perspective. It imagines instead a "day after" limited to interminable negotiations about the volumes of humanitarian aid allowed into Gaza, or the use of the smallest bag of cement in the Sisyphean task of rebuilding the territory.

But every effort should be made to avoid falling back into the rut dug since the last peace negotiations, over 10 years ago, which brought so much to Israelis and Palestinians alike.

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