It has taken far too long for the hope to materialize, but the January 15 announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas finally offers a glimpse of an end to a two-fold ordeal: That of Palestinians of Gaza, swept up in the reckless course chosen by a Hamas leader who was killed in the fighting, Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the barbaric massacres of Israeli civilians, on October 7, 2023. And also that of the Israeli hostages, captured that same day, who will finally be returned to their loved ones. They have been considered as a negligible factor by the far right, which is represented within Israel's ruling coalition.
The guns should have fallen silent a long time ago. Ever since it became clear that the objective the Israeli government had assigned to its army – the total destruction of the Palestinian movement, which is considered to be a terrorist organization by many Western countries – was a fantasy, even after Israeli troops partially reoccupied the narrow strip of land, in a struggle in which Israel lost part of its soul.
Unfortunately, the Middle East is not a place where hope naturally flourishes. That's why caution remains necessary. The successive phases of the January 15 agreement must be respected, but there is no guarantee of this. Above all, they must constitute the prelude leading to a "day after," one which Benyamin Netanyahu's government has, thus far, proven incapable of defining.
Future blocked by ruins
The situation is urgent, however, as the total rout suffered by Hamas, which has lost all legitimacy to appropriate Palestinian national aspirations, offers a rare opportunity. Not only has Hamas come out of the war battered and decapitated, but it has taken the cornerstones of the Iran-backed "axis of resistance" with it, namely the leader of the Hezbollah movement in Lebanon, Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in a bombing raid in September 2024, and the former ruler of Damascus, Bashar al-Assad, who was swept from power three months later by a lightning offensive conducted by rebels that he had thought he'd subdued through torrents of blood.
If the ceasefire does not lead to lasting stabilization, if no "day after" comes to materialize, if the reconstruction of Gaza – ravaged like never before – remains a utopian dream, and if Israel allows chaos to take root in the narrow strip of land, all while continuing to keep the Palestinian Authority (which is, admittedly, in an obsolete coma) at bay, the Islamist militia organization will eventually be reborn. All it will have to do is play on hatred of Israel, which the punishment inflicted, the tens of thousands of civilians killed or seriously injured, and the future blocked by ruins have certainly brought to a climax – much like the hatred that October 7, 2023, has deeply ingrained in Israeli society.
The circumstances are not favorable, with Donald Trump's upcoming accession to the White House, as he has been considered to be the most unilaterally pro-Israeli US president of all. In this uncertain land, however, one truth is known to all: Contenting ourselves with a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of Israeli hostages will, sooner or later, guarantee new, ever-greater cycles of death and devastation. Two peoples, scarred by grief and tragedy, are waiting for their leaders to finally look after their interests, so that they can escape this grim fate.