What will become of the thousands of Russian Wagner mercenaries in Belarus following the presumed death, reported on Wednesday, August 23, of their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin? Their fate remains uncertain for the time being, barely two months after their arrival in the country, Moscow's number-one ally in their war with Ukraine.
Following the private militia's failed mutiny in Russia on June 23 and 24, Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko appeared as a surprise mediator between Vladimir Putin and the rebels. An agreement was signed allowing the mercenaries to go into exile in the country, which had become a rear base for Russian troops since the start of the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The dictator also offered "security guarantees" to Wagner's boss, whose (very likely) assassination is a humiliation for the Belarusian president, whom Putin is using as a tool.
Some 5,000 fighters from the private militia moved into a military base in the village of Cel, 90 kilometers from Minsk, without anyone knowing what they were supposed to be doing there. Their status remained unclear for several weeks before the regime formally confirmed their presence by commissioning them to train the Belarusian armed forces. At the end of July, Minsk also announced the presence of Wagner members in Belarusian military barracks located just five kilometers from NATO member Poland, heightening Western fears of destabilization.
Is Prigozhin's reported death the signal for their departure? According to the National Center of Resistance, an official Ukrainian special force, "convoys of Wagner fighters are leaving Belarus." ''[They] are probably heading for the border with Russia, but the Belarusian special services are trying to prevent the departure of the mercenaries' vehicles," this official body asserted on Thursday, August 24, citing Belarusian opponents operating underground.
Satellite images published on Thursday by Radio Svoboda, the Russian subsidiary of the American media outlet Radio Free Europe-Radio Liberty, show the disappearance of part of the tents in the Tsel camp, evidence for Wagner Group having actively "dismantled" its camp in the village, according to this media outlet. According to its calculations, more than a third of the tents have already been removed. "Out of 273 residential tents, about 101 were dismantled. And if one were to consider that each of the tents can accommodate about 20 soldiers, that would mean that 2,020 Wagnerites out of 5,000 previously stationed there have left the territory of the military unit."
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