Washington, Avdiivka and Gaza: Three very different crisis theaters with one thing in common. The American capital in turmoil, the small Ukrainian town captured by the Russian army on February 16, and the tormented Palestinian enclave are all posing major challenges to both the credibility and the unity of the West. The current picture is bleak. The liberal democracies are experiencing a moment of existential doubt and vulnerability. They seem voiceless in terms of values, and struggle to project their considerable strength.

Part of this gloomy atmosphere stems from Washington, the central reactor of this Western world contested and challenged by states such as China, Russia and Iran. The possibility of another Trump presidency terrifies America's allies. It forces Europeans to face up to their collective security responsibilities. Senator J.D. Vance (Ohio), the rare Trump politician to reflect on the contours of foreign policy, issued a warning on February 19 in the Financial Times.

The war in Ukraine? Not an American affair. The Europeans "ought to have the capacity to handle the conflict, but over decades they have become far too weak. America has been asked to fill the void at tremendous expense to its own citizens." The history of NATO, the extent of mutual interests, the strategic deployment of US forces on the European continent: All of this is disregarded. The calculator overpowersthe history book.

Republican separatism

This threat of American disinterest, of a strategic reorientation towards Asia that is already well underway, is reflected in Congress by the blocking of a new aid plan for Ukraine. In the House of Representatives, a minority of a few dozen elected Republicans, led by Donald Trump, is blocking the very principle of a vote on the $60 billion (€55.5 billion) package approved by the Senate.

It is unclear at this time whether a compromise will be reached. But the very fact that he has been ducking the issue for four months, on a subject on which there would have been bipartisan consensus not so long ago, demonstrates the rise of internal and external separatism within the Grand Old Party. The term is more appropriate than "isolationism." This movement does not want the United States to withdraw completely from world affairs, but it no longer feels bound by past commitments and traditional alliances. "America first," and everything else is negotiable, by force or by the checkbook.

The possibility of a premeditated paralysis of NATO is real in the event of Trump's victory, rather than an American withdrawal. The worst is far from certain, but considering it is a stimulating necessity. More generally, Europeans have been warned: Joe Biden is the last Atlanticist president. A matter of generation and personal journey. His national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, has theorized a systemic rivalry with China, to the detriment of the rest. Whatever the outcome of the American election, Europeans must be prepared to live without America at their bedside. An America less invested in their security, even if it will want, with varying degrees of intensity, to contain Russia's poisonous operations.

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