A continuing embargo on Ukrainian grain, an exasperated statement by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the United Nations (UN), a complaint from Kyiv to the World Trade Organization (WTO), a dispute over arms shipments... In a matter of days, diplomatic and economic relations between Ukraine and Poland, one of Kyiv's closest allies since the start of the Russian invasion, have hit rock bottom.
The souring of relations between the two neighbors is taking place in a particular context for each of them. In Ukraine, its forces are launching a counter-offensive that is making slow headway against the Russian army, while in Poland legislative elections are taking place that could prove crucial for the country's future.
The commercial and diplomatic issues surrounding wheat, corn, rapeseed and sunflower seeds produced in Ukraine have sparked discord. In the spring of 2022, a few months after the Russian invasion, the European Commission set up "solidarity routes" to facilitate the sale and export of Ukrainian agricultural products, duty free, to Africa and the Middle East. One of these routes passes through Poland. "Since the beginning of the conflict, almost 50% of Ukrainian grain has transited or ended up in the European Union," according to the Farm Foundation, a think tank which focuses on global agricultural issues. The price of this grain is much lower than that of wheat produced in the EU, particularly in Central European countries.
On the grounds that these cereals, some of which remain stuck in their silos, are destabilizing the local market and thus the income of their farmers, Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia unilaterally blocked these imports in April 2023. Brussels accepted the embargo, provided it did not prevent transit to other countries and that it would not last more than four months. On July 17, Russia refused to renew its agreement on grain exports via the Black Sea, giving the land and river corridors passing through Central Europe even more significance.
Temporary measures have not solved the underlying problem, which reappeared as the embargo deadline approached. Even before September 15, Warsaw declared that "regardless of the Commission's subsequent decision, we will not open the border to Ukrainian grain". According to Brussels, there is no longer any reason for the embargo, since its analysis shows that "there is no longer any distortion of national cereals markets," and Kyiv is committed to controlling grain flows. The Polish response is now more political than anything else. "The interests of Polish farmers are more important to us than any regulations from Brussels that would be detrimental to them," said Robert Telus, the minister of agriculture.
The situation escalated on September 18, when Ukraine lodged a complaint with the WTO against Poland, Hungary and Slovakia, demanding financial compensation, considering that "the unilateral actions of EU member states in the field of trade are unacceptable". "On September 20, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki retorted: "I warn the Ukrainian authorities that if they want to escalate the conflict like this, we will ban the import of additional products."
The first sign of a breakthrough came the following day. After a phone conversation between the respective agriculture ministers, the two agreed to "find a solution that takes into account the interests of both countries," hoping to "work out a way forward for export cooperation in the near future," according to the Ukrainian side. Nevertheless, the first visible political consequences of this trade dispute had already come to the fore.
The row between Poland and Ukraine flared up in the most public of diplomatic arenas, the UN General Assembly in New York. In front of journalists, Polish President Andrzej Duda compared Ukraine to a drowning man who risks dragging those who try to save him down with him – in other words, Poland.
Ukrainian President Zelensky, who is due to visit the White House and then the United States Congress on a crucial diplomatic tour, took advantage of his own speech to point out that Russia "uses the price of food as a weapon" and criticized, without naming them, "certain countries that feign solidarity while indirectly supporting Russia". By which he clearly meant Poland. A sign of the deep-seated tension between Warsaw and Kyiv, the planned meeting between the two presidents did not take place. Just a few months ago, Zelensky chose Poland for his first state visit abroad since the outbreak of war, while Duda has already visited Kyiv four times.
The Ukrainian president's comments had a rapid and tangible impact on relations between the two countries. Warsaw, feeling targeted by the remarks, summoned the Ukrainian ambassador on September 20 to protest against this "false and particularly unjustified claim concerning Poland, which has supported Ukraine since the first days of the war".
Morawiecki then announced the suspension of arms shipments to Ukraine. He did not link this decision to the grain issue, nor to Zelensky's speech, and stated that his priority was to "modernize and rapidly arm the Polish army".
His statements were quickly tempered, however, by a spokesman clarifying on Thursday that this would not affect "previously agreed shipments of ammunition and armaments" and that Rzeszow-Jasionka airport, through which 80% of military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine passes, would continue this arrangement. A few hours later, Poland's President Duda came forward to say the prime minister's statement had been misinterpreted. "[Morawiecki's] words have been interpreted in the worst possible way. In my opinion, the prime minister meant that we will not transfer to Ukraine the new armaments that we are acquiring to modernize the Polish army," he explained to Polish news channel TVN24.
Coming in the middle of a counter-offensive, the turmoil created by this sequence of exchanges is bound to leave its mark on the relationship between Kyiv and one of its closest allies and biggest arms suppliers. As summarized by the specialist website Oryx, dedicated to listing the weapons received by the Ukrainian army, "few countries have offered Ukraine even half the extent of military support that Poland has provided".
Poland's decisions must also be seen in the context of the country's legislative elections, planned for October 15. To win a third election in a row, the right-wing ruling party Law and Justice is betting on a simple equation. They need to keep the support of the agricultural regions that brought them to power, while fending off pressure from the far-right Konfederacja (Confederation) party, which accuses them of being too accommodating of a Ukraine that they say is not sufficiently grateful.
Translation of an original article published in French on lemonde.fr; the publisher may only be liable for the French version.