In a poem written at the end of the 18^th century, André Chénier called France "a generous land that the complaisant gods formed to be happy," writing of its icy Alps, tortuous rivers and fertile fields, a source of abundance. Two hundred years on, this idyllic landscape in all its variations is sitting under the shadow of climate change. From coasts to peaks, plains to cities, no region has been spared the effects of global warming. Now is a time of heatwaves, droughts, fires, floods, water shortages, lower agricultural yields and eternal snowmelt.

The Climate Action Network (CAN), a global network of environmental non-governmental organisations, has methodically laid out the impact of the climate crisis on every region of France, effects as numerous and diverse as the country itself, in a 100-page report published on Thursday, September 19 in partnership with the French Agency for Ecological Transition (ADEME). This summary is all the more pertinent as there has been no other recent assessment of climate risks and vulnerabilities by region, despite the recommendations of the High Council for Climate (HCC).

"Contrary to what we still hear today, climate change is not something far away from us, either in time or space. It is already having numerous consequences in France, and these are set to worsen," said Benjamin Crettenand, one of the report's two authors, who is responsible for raising awareness of climate change within CAN. By cross-referencing and synthesizing hundreds of data points from France's meteorology agency Météo-France, the HCC, France's National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) and local Intergovernmental Panels on Climate Change, "we wanted to offer a tool to help local authorities make the right decisions to plan the [ecological] transition and adapt to global warming," said Clara Sannicolo, climate and territories manager at CAN, the other author of the report.

'The exceptional will become the norm'

In a France that has already warmed by 1.9°C since the pre-industrial era, all regions are facing a multitude of risks. While Île-de-France, the region around Paris, and Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur in the south are hit first and foremost by heat; Hauts-de-France, the country's northernmost region, by flooding, and Normandy in the west by erosion and submersion, virtually all climate hazards have an impact on the whole country. "In the coming decades, the exceptional will become the norm everywhere," said Sannicolo.

Ile-de-France

A region that is particularly vulnerable to the consequences of climate change linked to the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon. By 2080, we could see prolonged heatwaves with up to 34 days a year and 35 tropical nights (minimum 20°C), 7 times more than today. A summer like that of 2022, considered extraordinarily hot, could become the norm as early as 2030.

Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur

Regional temperatures are expected to rise by 1.6°C to 2.2°C by 2050 compared with the end of the 20th century (reference period 1976-2005). This is the most severe warming forecast in France. The number of heatwaves recorded in the region is three times higher than in 2000*.

* Since Météo-France readings began in 1947.

Corsica

By 2050, 9 out of 10 Corsicans will be experiencing more than 30 tropical nights a year (at least 20 °C), with real physical consequences for their bodies, which recover poorly in episodes of high heat. Given the island has the oldest population in France, this represents a major public health issue.

From north to south, the country is suffering increasing heatwaves, dangerous to public health. But the worst is yet to come. With the policies currently being implemented, France is likely to reach +4°C warming by 2100, compared with a global average of +3°C. The heatwaves of 2022 and 2023 would become commonplace. In the Paris region, temperatures could exceed 50°C. In Lyon, temperatures would approach those of Madrid in 2050 and Algiers by the end of the century.

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