Prime Minister Michel Barnier's predicted fall, in the very likely event of the adoption on Wednesday, December 4, of a motion of no-confidence that would be supported by both the left and the far right, raises the specter of governmental instability. An additional consequence of Emmanuel Macron's failed dissolution.

With no majority in the Assemblée Nationale, Barnier used Article 49.3 of the Constitution on Monday to pass the social security budget bill without a vote. The prime minister eventually decided on this option on the text resulting from the compromise reached between ministers and senators on Friday, in the joint committee on the social security budget. "France needs a Social Security Financing Plan and a budget for 2025. To achieve this, I have worked hard to engage in dialogue with all the political groups, always remaining open and willing to listen," asserted Barnier on Monday. This was a thinly veiled reference to the many concessions made by Barnier to members of the Rassemblement National (RN) and their leader, Marine Le Pen.

In less than a week, the president of the far-right group of MPs in the Assemblée has exerted maximum pressure on the prime minister to secure measures to bolster her working-class electorate. Under pressure, Barnier agreed to offer guarantees to the far right by canceling an electricity tax hike and reforming State Medical Aid.

The culmination of these chaotic negotiations was a press release issued by the prime minister's office on Monday, in which the government abandoned the 5% cut in medication reimbursements, stressing that this was a response to the RN's wishes, following a telephone call between Barnier and Le Pen. The €800 million measure was deemed insufficient by Le Pen, who upped the ante once again, calling for retirement pensions to be indexed to inflation.

From the Assemblée's rostrum, Barnier closed the door on new amendments tabled by the RN. In the end, Le Pen's group and its allies tabled their motion of no confidence, announcing that they would also vote in favor of the one put forward by the left. "Mr. Barnier did not wish to respond to the request of the 11 million Rassemblement National voters. He said that everyone should assume their responsibilities. We will assume ours," Le Pen challenged in front of the press on Monday.

At the other end of the political spectrum, the response to the activation of Article 49.3 was just as relentless. As the prime minister prepared to take the floor, the radical-left La France Insoumise (LFI) MPs all stood up and walked out of the Assemblée. This was a recurring choreography during the period when then-prime minister Elisabeth Borne (2022-2024), was often triggering Article 49.3 on budget bills. In the Salle des Quatre colonnes, the Assemblée's antechamber, where a swarm of cameras and microphones were trying to capture the high energy of the moment, the president of the LFI group, Mathilde Panot, castigated "a prime minister who tried to escape censure by wallowing in dishonor with the RN."

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